After Brexit: the forecast for domestic staff…
On the 23rd of June, millions of British people voted as to the future of Great Britain’s place in the EU. At 7am on the 24th, the country awoke to a new day and to the realisation that the majority (if only by 1, 269,501 million which had swung the vote) had won to leave the EU. What followed was complete and utter chaos.
David Cameron (Prime Minister) announced his resignation, the stock market crashed, the pound plummeted to a rate that had not been seen since 1985 and £350 billion pounds was wiped from the British economy. The world watched on as the journalists and press gave their best indication of what would follow.
Those at the head of the ‘Leave’ campaign were suspiciously quiet. As a British company (with our headquarters in Mayfair), with a British CEO at the helm of the ship, Polo & Tweed employers are a mixture of British and non British (Dutch, Romanian, Russian, American, etc) They were hand-picked for their jobs for their business acumen and ability to work in a strong team. They were chosen due to their aptitude to do a great job.
So what is the forecast for the future of the company, what does this mean for candidates looking for work and clients looking to hire staff? What is the future for the UK and for domestic recruitment….
For the Brits
If you are living and working in Great Britain then things are most likely going to change. There is an unknown future in front of us, and ultimately even if Article 50 is invoked (which it has not yet been), the negotiations could likely lead to the remaining of free movement (in some form), meaning not a great deal would change for normal working people.
If you are British then you’ll have the certainty that the economy will most likely suffer, the pound has dropped and this means inflation is set to rise. The cost to buy goods from other countries will potentially in turn become more expensive for us to buy, and the cost of going on holiday will increase. Telephone calls to the EU which were previously capped by the EU could be removed, so we might also see an increase in costs to call abroad.
From the doom and gloom side, it does seem that wages could drop in the UK, which will of course affect the working classes and those on lower wages, however, as the economists are quick to point out, no-one can be exactly sure if this is going to definitely happen as it’s still early.
Interest rates might rise which will push up rent/mortgage obligations, but if the bank of England feel it’s putting too much strain on its own economy then they will actually lower the interest rates, which would mean it is an excellent opportunity for first time buyers. However, like the crash in 2008, it is likely that housing prices will also drop, meaning if you want to move, you’re in a bit of a catch 22.
There is a large question mark around pensions, tax increase and savings, but it would be safe to say that pensions and savings interest likely will drop and the possibility of tax increase is realistic.
For the Europeans living in the UK
You are safe! There is not going to be a mass-exodus or eviction from the UK (at least we hope not). It is highly unlikely that you would be asked to leave, particularly if you are already living and working here.
Similarly there are millions of Britons living abroad, and it is just as unlikely they will be ‘evicted’ from their homes. Governments around the world, and even the unelected European Council, understand that people have homes around the world.
Although we’ve heard some worrying reports of growing racial hate crimes in the UK towards anyone who is not ‘British Nationals’, we’re confident that the common sense and open-arm policy will be undertaken by the government and in turn the slow leave of the EU.
After all, Great Britain is still in Europe, we have just majority decided to leave the EU which governs us. Like Norway who have a special agreement with the EU, it may well be that our government looks to negotiate a special agreement with the EU, so that we have positive trade, freedom of movement etc., without answering to the EU and their regulations.
Domestic Staff Recruitment – Candidates
The good news for domestic staff candidates is that until negotiations finish and Article 50 is invoked, nothing changes (at least not in terms of policy).
So if you are looking for work in the UK, either from abroad or already being based here, you still can. There is perhaps a slight more sense of urgency, as if you want to live and remain in the UK for the distant future, we would recommend you look to secure a job (employed or self-employed) and register as living in the UK and start paying taxes.
If you aren’t paying tax, then we would recommend that you start – and soon! Remember if you are earning under the current tax threshold you won’t pay tax, but being registered as a tax payer, it will mean you have more rights when the article is invoked and the negotiations to leave the EU begin.
The most important thing is not to panic. Nothing in politics or economics happens quickly, so if you aim to re-locate to the UK or you are already here and want to live and work, then don’t be deterred! The United Kingdom is an amazing place to work and live, and although there is a period of unknown in the economy, candidates from around Europe and indeed the world will always be welcome to work here (we just might need to do a bit of extra work with VISAs etc in a few years time).
Domestic Staff Recruitment – Clients
If you are looking to hire a candidate and they are not a British Citizen, then fear not! Until Article 50 is invoked, nothing changes in the policy/regulations of the country.
The government (once the article has been invoked) will be looking to have positive negotiations with the EU to ensure that free trade and open borders still exist for those looking to work in the UK and those wishing to work abroad.
Perhaps similar to Norway, it will be in the existing EU representatives’ and the UK’s favor to have easy trade and working rights across Europe. For millions of British living abroad, and for millions of Europeans looking to live and work in the UK, we are hopeful that the government will not wish to stunt the economy by blocking this.
For clients of ours based in Europe or non-EU countries, it may make more sense for candidates to be employed through their own country, or indeed for domestic staff candidates (not Nannies) to be self employed rather than employed.
We will be looking to give advise to each and every client over the next months and years whilst policies become clearer, in order to ensure that the best route is taken. As for the time being, you can still hire any nationality of staff for your home, and know that as long as they are paying taxes in the UK, it is highly unlikely they will be ejected once the UK finally leaves the EU.
Polo & Tweed – destination into unchartered territory
Since the EU was founded, apart from Greenland departing in 1982, no other member country of the EU has left. Countries have applied to join and withdraw before their application was processed and other countries such as Turkey are always keen to take a space.
What is true for the UK and for all British businesses based here is entering unchartered territory. But like our founding parliament and the nature of the British bloodlines, we are a brave nation. Our ancestors travelled the world and founded new civilisations across the globe (the commonwealth being a clear example), and although colonisation seemed to be at the heart of our worldly discoveries, the nature of the British has always been brave and pioneering.
Polo & Tweed are a British company, lead at the helm by British born and bred Lucy Challenger. She is determined that what will come of the economy and the next few years will only see the success of her company grow, and in turn she and her team will help support candidates and clients around the world to find the perfect staff.
So let us journey on into the new beginnings and unchartered territories, and to (quote Star Trek) boldly go where no man (or woman) has gone before. We are hopeful and positive about the future and we look forward to continue to build the UK economy and growth, continuing to be a powerful (yet independent) country. If you’d like any other advice or guidance, then please do get in touch. This article was written by our CEO Lucy, who is not an economist nor expert in politics, but she has a passion for positive change and growth in the country that is her home.